Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 3, 2024): All eyes are on Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña as they enter the supporting actress race for Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez.” Oscar history shows it’s not uncommon for multiple actresses from the same film to be nominated in the supporting category; over 33% of past lineups have featured more than one actress from a single movie.
Saldaña, already a box office heavyweight, is emerging as an early frontrunner thanks to her roles in four of the highest-grossing films ever. While her screen time in “Emilia Pérez” is nearly equal to that of co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, the decision to campaign Saldaña in the supporting category follows a familiar Oscars strategy. A prime example is “Chicago” (2002), where Catherine Zeta-Jones won the supporting actress Oscar while Renée Zellweger was nominated in the lead category. Coincidentally, Zeta-Jones was joined by co-star Queen Latifah, who also came from the music industry — a promising parallel for Gomez.
This approach could work in Gomez’s favor. Coming off her first Emmy nomination for “Only Murders in the Building,” she shines in “Emilia Pérez” as Jessi, the estranged wife of the title character. Blending emotional depth with her undeniable star power, Gomez’s performance has already generated buzz. If both she and Saldaña score nominations, it would make history as the first time two Latinas are nominated in the same category for the same film. So far, only two Latinas have won acting Oscars: Rita Moreno for “West Side Story” (1961) and Ariana DeBose for the 2022 remake — both for playing the same character.
On the other side of the Oscar conversation is Saoirse Ronan, entering the race with two highly anticipated performances. Ronan is competing for best actress for “The Outrun,” a Sundance hit, and in the supporting actress category for “Blitz,” a World War II epic. If she’s nominated for both roles, Ronan would become the 13th person and the youngest actor to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Of the 12 actors to accomplish this feat, seven went on to win an Oscar for one of their roles, including legends like Jessica Lange and Al Pacino.
In “Blitz,” which opens the BFI London Film Festival, Ronan portrays Rita, a mother desperate to reunite with her young son after sending him to the countryside for safety. The film, written and directed by Steve McQueen, boasts a stellar cast, including Harris Dickinson and Stephen Graham, adding to its growing anticipation.
Meanwhile, Danielle Deadwyler is making her mark with “The Piano Lesson,” directed by Malcolm Washington. Deadwyler stars as Berniece, an emotionally charged widow in this adaptation of August Wilson’s 1987 play. Historically, the role of Berniece has been campaigned in the supporting category, which is likely where Deadwyler will be placed this awards season. The character has been portrayed by actresses such as S. Epatha Merkerson and Danielle Brooks, both receiving critical acclaim.
Deadwyler’s standout performance as Mamie Till in “Till” (2022) had many pegging her as a sure-fire Oscar contender last year. While she received a SAG nomination, her snub by the Academy was one of the season’s biggest surprises. Hopefully, with her decisive turn in “The Piano Lesson,” Deadwyler will get the recognition she deserves this time.
Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen — all praised for their performances in Azazel Jacobs’ family drama “His Three Daughters” — have chosen to submit for Oscar consideration in the supporting actress category, revealed to Variety exclusively. We’ll see if any of the three can gain traction.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 1 Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 2 Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 3 Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 4 Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 5 Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 
Next in Line
Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 6 Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 7 Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) 8 Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 9 Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) ** 10 Leonie Benesch — “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 
Other Contenders
Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 11 Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 12 Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features) 13 Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 14 Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 15 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 16 Rachel Sennott — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 17 Fernanda Montenegro — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 18 Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 19 Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi) 20 Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) 
Also In Contention
Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)Rank Performer & Film 21 Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 22 Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 23 Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 24 Lashana Lynch — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 25 Lesley Manville — “Queer” (A24) 26 Rebecca Ferguson — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 27 Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 28 Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) ** 29 Ella Hunt — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 30 Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) Eligible Titles (Best Supporting Actress)
** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Sophie Wilde — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Juliet Cowan — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Lesley Manville — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Alison Steadman — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
- Nykiya Adams — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Erin Kellyman — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Hayley Squires — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Lashana Lynch — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Anna Diop — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Alfre Woodard — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **
- Cailee Spaeny — “Civil War” (A24)
- Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Dafne Keen — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Glenn Close — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Demi Singleton — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Renate Reinsve — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Beanie Feldstein — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Geraldine Viswanathan — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Rebecca Ferguson — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Zendaya — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) **
- Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon)
- Oluniké Adeliyi — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Dolly De Leon — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Trine Dyrholm — “The Girl with the Needle” (Mubi)
- Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Michelle Dockery — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Kelly Reilly — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
- Chloe East — “Heretic” (A24)
- Sophie Thatcher — “Heretic” (A24)
- Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix) **
- Sienna Miller — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Fernanda Montenegro — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Sasha Calle — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Lio Mehiel — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) **
- Zoe Ziegler — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Zazie Beetz — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
- Catherine Keener — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Toni Collette — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) **
- Zoey Deutch — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Hong Chau — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jamie Lee Curtis — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Billie Lourd — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Brenda Song — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Marion Cotillard — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Andrea Riseborough — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Karen Gillan — “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Katy O’Brian — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- Valeria Golino — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Aubrey Plaza — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Tiffany Boone — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Maddie Ziegler — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Zoe Chao — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Emma Corrin — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Uma Thurman — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Helena Bonham Carter — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Lena Olin — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Lesley Manville — “Queer” (A24)
- Jennifer Grey — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Amber Midthunder — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Ella Hunt — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Kim Matula — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Rachel Sennott — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Leonie Benesch — “September 5” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Oprah Winfrey — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Eileen Walsh — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Emily Watson — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Michelle Yeoh — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Laura Linney — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- Tilda Cobham-Hervey — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actress)
2024 category winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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